Over the past decade, the Zero RB strategy has gained popularity among fantasy football managers as a way to minimize draft-day risk. The strategy, pioneered by writer Shawn Siegele in 2013, involves de-emphasizing the running back position early in the draft and focusing instead on top-tier wide receivers, tight ends and perhaps a quarterback. The goal is to avoid the uncertainty associated with volatile running back performances and injuries by building around more consistent and reliable sources of fantasy points.
However, as fantasy football drafting strategy and NFL rosters have changed, it’s time to question the viability of this strategy. Instead, think about the Hero RB strategy this year — and prioritize drafting an elite running back early due to their scarcity and value.
The NFL has seen another significant shift in offensive trends in recent years, with an increasing number of teams adopting a running-back-by-committee approach. This shift has resulted in fewer workhorse running backs and a less predictable distribution of touches. As a result, the number of marginally reliable running backs has diminished, making the Zero RB strategy less advantageous. Remember, the Zero RB strategy looks to target running backs in the middle-to-later rounds of the draft, typically around rounds 5 to 7 if not later. But most of the viable running backs are already gone by that time. Based on thousands of fantasy football mock drafts conducted this week, the top 14 running backs or so are typically already spoken for by the start of Round 4. By the start of Round 7, the top 26 running backs are gone — more than two for every team in a 12-team league. That leaves little margin for error to grab a minimally impactful player at the position.
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Elite running backs also have the potential to deliver game-changing (fantasy) performances by putting up massive point totals in any given week. A single breakout game from a dominant running back can significantly impact a fantasy matchup. And such breakout performances are less common among lower-tier running backs. Since 2014, running backs drafted in the first round have accounted for 30 percent of all weekly performances that produced 20 or more fantasy points in PPR leagues. They’ve accounted for 42 percent of the performances producing 30 or more fantasy points, with a precipitous drop thereafter. Wide receivers, on the other hand, don’t have nearly as steep a drop off in breakout games.
In addition, as the popularity of the fantasy game has grown, so too has the knowledge and experience of fantasy managers. With robust sources, expert analysis and a wealth of historical data, fantasy football players seem to have become more adept at navigating the complexities of the draft process.
End of carouselFor example, in 12-team, point-per-reception leagues, the standard error for a running back drafted in the first three rounds was 19 last year. That means the end-of-season rankings of one of those running backs were, on average, about 19 spots higher or lower than their initial drafted position. The standard error for a wide receiver selected in the first three rounds was 16, slightly better but hardly a reason to avoid one of the most crucial positions. In fact, over the past four seasons, the standard error for a running back selected in the first three rounds was actually less than that of a wide receiver. In other words, fantasy football enthusiasts are apparently getting better at evaluating talent, leaving fewer sleepers at the position in later rounds and less reason to fear taking running backs early.
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Another argument touted by Zero RB endorsers is that running backs have a higher risk of injury than other positions because of the physical demands of their role. By not investing heavily in running backs early in the draft, Zero RB managers aim to reduce their risk of losing their top picks for huge chunks of the season. The data doesn’t support this, at least not to a degree worth punting on the position early. From 2014 to 2016, wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds averaged almost two more games per season than running backs drafted in those early rounds. In 2018, it was a difference of almost three more games played. But since then, there has barely been a difference in games played between high draft picks at those two positions.
By investing in a strong running back early — think Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson and Nick Chubb — managers reduce their reliance on committee backfields or unproven lower-tier running backs. Those less reliable options can be frustrating to manage, especially when the lesser backs fail to meet expectations or are limited in their opportunities. While Zero RB advocates focus on wide receiver depth, the Hero RB strategy recognizes that a single powerhouse running back can often outperform a committee of less reliable options. Addressing the running back position early and being flexible in response to league dynamics will allow Hero RB enthusiasts to take a well-rounded approach and increase their chances of success.
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